Save yourself by not looking at Armstrong’s ERA.
The trade deadline has passed, and the Cardinals were active until the final buzzer.
For several days, rumors persisted about Dylan Carlson’s prospective move. The Cardinals sought to clear roster space for freshly acquired Tommy Pham while also finding bullpen help.
They (theoretically) accomplished both by trading Carlson to the Rays (where he is destined to become an impact player) for struggling right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong.
Don’t look at Armstrong’s ERA.
Or his 2024 Baseball Savant page.
But maybe do look at his 2023 data.
I’ll have more analysis shortly. Stay tuned!
Carlson has had a disappointing season for the Cardinals, batting.198/.275/.240 with a 52 wRC+. His defense has also weakened, with negative OAAs in both RF and CF.
His dismal performance stems from a late Spring injury in which he clashed with Jordan Walker. Carlson was placed on the injured list in April due to the subsequent shoulder injury, and he was never the same player after that.
Carlson’s average exit velocity has decreased from 89.3 previous season to 85.7. His maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage have also dropped. That has resulted in a significant increase in his K% and a decrease in his BB%.
Carlson’s season isn’t going particularly well.
With options remaining, the Cardinals might have sent Carlson to AAA to recover. They might have kept his rights and hoped that a full offseason would allow him to regain shoulder strength, giving him another shot in 2025.
However, they ultimately decided that a change of scenery was preferable and traded the Cardinals’ previous top prospect for bullpen depth. Meanwhile, the Rays obtain control of Carlson for more than two seasons in an attempt to turn him around.
Nobody should be surprised if this happens. Tampa appears to be the ideal place for Carlson to restore his shoulder strength and translate his batted-ball potential from ’21 and ’23 into more consistent production. He is unlikely to be an All-Star, but he possesses a league-average bat and some centerfield skills.
In the meantime, Shawn Armstrong is working on his own project. The Cardinals simply won’t have as much time to maximize his prior potential as the Rays do with Carlson.
In 2023, Armstrong had a 1.38 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. He was an extremely productive reliever, with a strikeout percentage of over 26% and a BB rate of just over 5.
This season, at age 33, he has seen a drop in fastball velocity and effectiveness.
I am serious when I say “ignore his ERA.” His ERA (5.40) is over 2.00 higher than his FIP (3.76). The Cardinals are leaning towards the latter. Given his past, a mid-3 FIP appears more reasonable.
However, Armstrong’s Statcast ratings are alarming. It can be seen in his Baseball Savant dashboards for 2023 and 2024. He went from being one of the most effective bullpen pitchers in the league last season (with red ink all over the place) to one of the worst this year. And he will be a free agent at the end of the season. This is a “get right immediately” problem.
