Oli Marmol isn’t on the hot seat yet, but he may be if the Cardinals’ season spins out of hand.
The St. Louis Cardinals got off to a strong start in the second half, winning two of three against the Atlanta Braves. They were right in the middle of the National League Wild Card chase. Unfortunately, they have only won one of the four series since, and they recently dropped a key game against the New York Mets.
Overall, they’ve lost nine of their last 14 games, dropping to 57-56 for the season. They were in the Wild Card race not long ago, but are now 4.0 games behind as of this writing. FanGraphs gives them a 16.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. It’s feasible, but they’ll need to get back on track quickly.
Oli Marmol has not been solely responsible for their losses in these games, but he has never been a perfect manager. If the Cardinals fall out of contention and miss the playoffs, Marmol could easily lose his job. If he makes any of these three blunders, it will only encourage the Cardinals to make the move.
3) Oli Marmol can get himself fired by giving his players too many pre-planned games off
If there’s one thing Oli Marmol can do to upset Cardinals supporters, it’s to give players scheduled off days. This means that the Cardinals intend to rest some players on specific days, regardless of how they or the team perform.
The Cardinals tried it earlier this season with Nolan Arenado. He ended a long home run drought and was immediately benched the next game. He has done this before. With the Cardinals’ current position, Marmol cannot afford to do so.
It’s usually preferable to have everyone rested, but the Cardinals can’t afford to field many, if any, backup lineups. Given their minimal chances of making the playoffs, they must play their best players almost every day. If a sagging, injured, or exhausted player requires an off-day, that is OK, but nothing should be pre-planned by Marmol. It is August. The Cardinals must be desperate.
2) Miles Mikolas cannot remain in the Cardinals rotation when Lance Lynn comes back from the IL
The Cardinals’ starting rotation has had its ups and downs this season, but it has most likely exceeded expectations because to Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Most fans expected these two veterans to add little to no value, yet they’ve both performed like competent mid-rotation arms for much of the season.
Unfortunately, Lynn was placed on the IL on trade deadline day, making the Erick Fedde deal even more significant. As sad as the damage is, it appears to be minimal. Lynn is scheduled to return around mid-August, according to MLB.com.
When Lynn returns, he should be added back into the rotation. Andre Pallante is likely to be his replacement, but Miles Mikolas is the better choice. Mikolas has a 5.12 ERA in 23 appearances this season, and a 6.14 ERA in his last eight outings. He most recently gave four runs in four innings in a potentially critical loss to the Cubs.
Assuming he continues to fail, what is the logic behind keeping him in the rotation over Andre Pallante, who, despite a bad recent start, has been mainly productive in the rotation? Mikolas is a proven veteran with a large salary, but Pallante has recently appeared to be the better alternative. Unless that changes, the Cardinals should not prioritize Mikolas in their rotation over him.
1) Continuing to hit Paul Goldschmidt in the middle of the lineup could cost Oli Marmol his job
Many Cardinals position players who were supposed to play significant roles in this offense have had a tough season, but no one has disappointed more than Paul Goldschmidt. He won the National League MVP title in 2022, had a respectable.810 OPS last season, and has utterly plummeted off the cliff in 2024.
The 36-year-old comes into Tuesday’s game with a.230/.289/.386 slash line. He has 17 home runs and 43 RBIs in 109 games. He has 100 more strikeouts than walks. Goldschmidt has had by far the worst season of his 14-year career, but he continues to hit in the middle of the Cardinals’ lineup.
Goldschmidt has batted third, fourth, or fifth in each of the Cardinals’ last seven games. He replied by going 5 for 26 in those games. It makes sense to place Goldschmidt higher in the lineup against lefties given his success versus southpaws this season, but three of those seven games were started by right-handed pitchers. Goldschmidt has a.637 OPS against righties this season.
If the Cardinals want to maximize their potential down the stretch, they must employ their best hitters higher up the lineup. It is not 2022 anymore. Goldschmidt has not hit well enough this season to merit regular starts in the middle of the order, especially against right-handed pitching. Marmol’s decision to place him higher than fifth or sixth in the sequence is difficult to defend.
