The Cardinals have placed veteran right-hander on the 15-day disabled list with flexor tendonitis in his right forearm, marking the end of his debut season with the club, according to a team announcement. Right-hander Kyle Leahy was recalled to replace Gray on the big league roster, and rookie Michael McGreevy is now expected to assume Gray’s spot in the rotation, according to Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.
Gray, 34, joins the Cardinals after signing a three-year, $75 million contract. He had a great 2023 season with the Twins, posting an MLB-best 2.83 FIP and finishing second in AL Cy Young award voting to Yankees star Gerrit Cole. Gray’s season began slightly late due to injury, but he started strong overall, with a 2.60 ERA and 2.84 FIP in his first nine starts with the club, giving the impression that Gray would be able to provide more of the domination he demonstrated in Minnesota with St. Louis this year.
Gray’s statistics have been disappointing since the calendar switched to June, as he produced a 4.92 ERA in 15 appearances from early June to late August before finishing the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 1.91 FIP in his final four starts. That gives him a very pedestrian 3.84 ERA in 166 1/3 innings, but the underlying numbers indicate he’s been much better. After all, even during the aforementioned 15-start slump, Gray posted a respectable 3.63 FIP while striking out an impressive 29.3% of opponents. Looking at his full-season stats, he’ll finish with a 3.13 FIP, the seventh-best in the majors, a 30.3% strikeout rate, tied with Tarik Skubal for the second-best figure in the big leagues behind likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, and 3.8 fWAR, the seventh-highest among NL pitchers this year.
Unfortunately, Gray’s strong peripheral metrics did not translate into exceptional production on the field or wins for a Cardinals team that was just removed from postseason contention and currently has a 77-77 record with eight games remaining in the regular season. Having said that, the excellent underlying stats give reason to believe that the veteran will have better days in the future. That’s fantastic news for St. Louis fans, as Gray is expected to be a crucial member of the club’s starting five next season. According to Jones, Gray recently had an MRI that came back clean, and if the Cardinals stayed in the playoff hunt, he would most likely continue to pitch. That makes it seem unlikely that Gray’s current ailment will have any sort of impact on him when camp opens up for spring training next year.
Looking ahead to 2025, Gray is expected to anchor a rotation that will include deadline addition Erick Fedde, veteran innings eater Miles Mikolas, and youngster Andre Pallante, but there is still some uncertainty because the club has team options on both Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn for next season. While both veterans have been perfectly serviceable back-end arms for the Cardinals this year, with the aforementioned quartet and Steven Matz all expected to return in 2025, it would not be surprising if the club declined one or both players’ options in search of an upgrade to either the rotation or lineup elsewhere on the market.
In the near term, Leahy returns to the club’s roster as a multi-inning relief option, having posted a 4.02 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 47 innings earlier this season. Meanwhile, McGreevy made his big league debut in a spot start in July, impressing with seven innings of one-run ball. He presently has a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings at the big league level and a 4.02 ERA in 27 starts at Triple-A this season.
