On Monday afternoon, the Cincinnati Reds went into territory typically reserved for Major League Baseball’s higher-spending teams by delivering a $21+ million qualifying offer (QO) to pitcher Nick Martinez, who had opted out of the previous $12 million on his contract last week.
According to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Enquirer, Nick now has 15 days to accept or reject the offer, and if refused, he will enter free agency.
I say the Reds entered the domain generally held for the more expensive MLB clubs not because Martinez, who was outstanding for the Reds in a variety of roles in 2024, isn’t worth the money. He’s exactly the type of pitcher who deserves that kind of money, especially on a one-year contract (if he accepts). The area in which I talk is not about the money; rather, it is about the risk of his acceptance.
While the QO plainly suggests that the Reds want to keep Martinez, it goes without saying that the Reds typically prefer to spread their risk over as many years as possible to ensure that one player does not consume too much of their annual compensation. The front office would almost certainly admit that Martinez was correct in opting out of a deal that would pay him $12 million in 2025, but it goes without saying that in the contract negotiations mentioned by Wittenmyer, they were most likely discussing annual figures lower than the $21 million he’d receive by accepting the QO.
So we’ll see if Martinez, who will turn 35 in August, is willing to take a chance on himself and decline the offer, entering free agency with the QO penalty attached to any team that signs him – a loss of draft pick depending on whether the signing team is a revenue-sharing contributor or recipient. The Reds, meanwhile, could earn a compensation selection after the first round in next summer’s draft if a team was ready to pay Martinez more than $50 million guaranteed.
The ‘risk’ I’m referring to is that Martinez, despite his performance in 2024, is one of the possible QO receivers who is not guaranteed to decline it. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, and others will all decline it right away since their market will be so strong that any stigma of losing a draft pick will be eliminated once they sign. Martinez, on the other hand, is a more difficult option to make due to his age, lack of a ‘clear’ role, and very short track record of accomplishment, especially as some teams may prefer him for relief work rather than starting.
Martinez, however, is a fantastic fit for this team, which is why the Reds took that risk. Given their losses and injuries, they need starter innings from somewhere, but they also need someone who won’t be an obstacle to a rotation slot if any of the uber-talented young arms take a significant step forward between now and next summer to earn starts. If Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Chase Petty, Connor Phillips, and Chase Burns all reach optimum health and performance, Martinez has demonstrated the desire and ability to step into a bulk-relief position and flourish at any time.
That is precisely why I believe he will accept this QO from the Reds and return in 2025. In this scenario, the Reds may end up paying a few million dollars more on him in 2025 than they would like, but they clearly like him and are willing to take the risk.
