The St. Louis Cardinals have officially embraced a young movement, with Chaim Bloom set to take over the front office in 2026. After two consecutive poor seasons, John Mozeliak is likely to spend his final season at the helm selling off St. Louis’ top players. Paul Goldschmidt is unlikely to return in free agency, while names like Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado are circulating in trade speculations.
Arenado is a very attractive trade option for third base. He is certainly a positive impact player, but at 33 years old, the signs of deterioration are obvious. Arenado’s slugging has dropped in each of the last two seasons, and he’s coming off his lowest OPS (.719) since he was a rookie.
In 2022, he led the MLB with 7.7 WAR. Arenado’s primary worth has switched from explosive offense to razor-sharp defense, and last season’s number was 2.4. He’s still one of the best defenders in the MLB at the hot corner—a 10-time Gold Glove winner, folks—but it only gets you so far if the bat isn’t clicking.
The Cardinals would like to move on from Arenado, but his $74 million deal over the next three years could be a stumbling block. Teams simply aren’t interested in paying that much money for a guy with such a severe regression curve.
However, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Philadelphia Phillies “could have interest” in the eight-time All-Star. But, as always, there is a catch.
Phillies could take Nolan Arenado off of Cardinals’ hands, but with a catch
“I’ve heard the rumors [Philadelphia] could have interest in getting Arenado from the Cardinals and I do think playing at Citizens Bank Park would help him, but St. Louis would need to absorb a lot of his contract,” says Bowden.
Arenado would make an excellent replacement for Alec Bohm in Philadelphia, but this trade cannot be completed until St. Louis accepts the remainder of Arenado’s remaining contract. The Phillies are already weary of their exorbitant tax cost, and Arenado’s recent slump dampens expectations considerably.
He’s clearly talented, but the Phillies can’t expect Arenado to exceed Bohm, who ended with a higher WAR (3.0) and significantly better hitting splits on the offensive end. The defensive boost is significant, but as Arenado matures, that facet of his game will certainly deteriorate.
A more hitter-friendly ballpark, combined with Philadelphia’s great offense, could help Arenado get back on track, but paying him any real money carries too much risk. Philadelphia would need to move Bohm while focusing on another key addition — Garrett Crochet, Willy Adames, etc. — and then add Arenado as a secondary investment. Arenado cannot (and most likely will not) be Philadelphia’s major offseason goal.
So, while St. Louis has the option of releasing Arenado and maybe recouping peripheral prospect value, the Cards will not do so. That may not matter much to Mozeliak and Bloom given St. Louis’ projected patience during this rebuild, but fans should not get too excited about Arenado’s contract being reduced.
