When the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with veteran right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, the organization did not rule out free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, according to industry insiders.to replcae
The Orioles have spent over $71 million on free agents this season, but Burnes is likely to sign a long-term contract worth almost three times that amount, according to market trends, following early mega-deals with Juan Soto, Blake Snell, and Max Fried.
Baltimore is seeking to keep up with free-spending division rivals the New York Yankees while dealing with the disappointment of first-round playoff eliminations the previous two seasons, despite 192 regular-season victories and one AL East crown.
It is unknown whether new owner David Rubenstein will pass on Burnes, who would command the most expensive deal in franchise history in terms of total investment and average annual value. The seven-year, $161 million contract signed by first baseman Chris Davis in 2016 is the team record. Burnes, like Davis, is represented by super-agent Scott Boras.
The free agent market has witnessed substantial contract hikes following a slow winter a year ago, when left-handers Snell and Jordan Montgomery did not sign until the final week of March and agreed to contracts with buyouts after one season.
Boras appeared to use the introduction press conference for new free agent Tyler O’Neill on Monday to put the ball squarely in Rubenstein’s court.
“Really, this boils down to ownership,” Boras told reporters in Baltimore. “When a market becomes competitive, ownership must respond in order to compete with other owners for superior talent. It’s something that is typically misunderstood by those who are unfamiliar with it.
“But you hope that with all of the knowledge around the availability of elite players, No. 1 pitchers, they’re not in free agent markets year after year. You’re fortunate if you have a need for one and there is one on the market that can meet it. And, ironically, that player has done well in your market.
Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA in 2024, his lone season in Baltimore after being acquired from Milwaukee. He got 181 strikeouts in 194 1/3 innings and received votes for the AL Cy Young Award. He won the honor in 2021 with the Brewers. His 3.4 WAR ranked 17th in the American League.
Burnes allowed one run in eight innings in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series, but the Orioles were shut out in a 1-0 defeat to Kansas City. The Royals won the second game 2-1 and advanced.
“Also ironically, that player has given you in the postseason exactly what you’d expect from a No. 1,” Boras told the reporter. “So all those unknowns that are coupled with free agency are known to Baltimore, which gives them more of an insight, and I would assume an aggression to continue to make this team more and more what it needs to be to be at a world championship level.”
The Los Angeles Dodgers set the top end of free agent pitching’s average yearly value this winter by signing two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract. Fried inked an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yankees, the most pricey pact.
The Orioles signed Sugano as their third free agent this winter. O’Neill agreed to a three-year, $49.5 million contract, while catcher/DH Gary Sanchez got a one-year, $13 million agreement.
O’Neill is set to receive $16.5 million in each of the next three years, with an opt-out clause following the 2025 season. He is projected to fill the void left by free agent Anthony Santander, who remains on the market after hitting 44 home runs in a career year in 2024.
The Orioles’ payroll has routinely ranked in the bottom third of the big leagues as their youthful — and under-control — players age. In 2024, the Orioles had a payroll of $109 million, ranking them 22nd in the majors.
Sugano, 35, is expected to slot into the middle of the rotation and provide an upgrade to the current staff following a revival in 29024, one of the best seasons of his 12-year career with the Yomiuri Giants. He was named Central League MVP after pitching 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.945 WHIP in 156 2/3 innings.
He is a two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, which is given yearly to recognize the greatest pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball, and his 2024 performances were comparable to his award-winning 2017-18 seasons, when he went 32-13 with an aggregate ERA of 1.88. He was posted in 2020, but chose to return to Japan.
The top three right-handed pitchers in the Orioles’ rotation are Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer. Albert Suarez is a candidate, as are Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish, who are expected to start the season on the injured list after recuperating from elbow operations.
Sugano appears to be an excellent fit for the redesigned Camden Yards, where the left field fence will be brought in by 9 to 20 feet. Sugano, who employs a six-pitch mix, recorded 51% of his outs on ground balls in 2024. He gave up six home runs and walked 16.
