Many St. Louis Cardinals fans are likely tired with Steven Matz. I got it. However, if the Cardinals transfer a rotation arm to remove payroll off their books, the veteran with a lesser number should leave town.
Erick Fedde has a legitimate market worth. If he had been a free agent this offseason, he would most likely have signed a multi-year contract with an AAV ranging from $17 million to $22 million, given the amount of money available. The possibility to get a starting as excellent as Fedde, who is only paid $7.5 million in 2025, is something contenders will want to take advantage of if possible.
While the Cardinals are still motivated to move Arenado off their books in order to significantly reduce their payroll, it has been reported that if they are unable to move Arenado, the club will likely pivot to trading one of Matz or Fedde (and I would not rule out trading either even if Arenado is moved). While Matz is expected to earn $5 million more than Fedde next year, I believe it makes far more sense to deal with the cheaper Fedde and gain a solid return on this reset.
I’ll provide this caveat to ensure that everyone understands where I stand: the Cardinals’ belief that they need to move Fedde to save money rather than because he’s a legitimate asset who can help them retool is ridiculous. Fedde should have been the first name on their list to let go when they declared this reset. Fedde is a free agent following the 2025 season, and I doubt the Cardinals will re-sign him to a multi-year deal.
Fedde’s worth is likely at an all-time high right now. Sure, he could be good again in the regular season and increase his value, but how much is realistic? Starting pitching is currently at a premium, so why not cash in?
While clubs are interested in acquiring Matz, the Cardinals cannot expect to receive significant value in return. While I am not opposed to them trading Matz if the proper deal is available, if they only transfer one, it needs to be Fedde.
Steven Matz can fill a unique role for the Cardinals in 2025 and potentially raise his trade value in the process
Since signing a four-year, $44 million contract with St. Louis, Matz has made 34 starts and 18 relief appearances, posting a 4.47 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 2.8 fWAR in three seasons. Matz has frequently been injured, and when well, he has not been nearly as productive for St. Louis. So why would I think they should keep him?
As previously stated, Fedde will merit a promising return from a trade partner this offseason. Matz will not. And, if the Cardinals want to give their young starting pitchers time in the rotation next year, moving on from Fedde while keeping Matz is the ideal insurance policy. Let me clarify.
Fedde, assuming he’s in St. Louis, should be in their rotation. He’s their second-best starter, after Sonny Gray. He had a 3.30 ERA and a 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last season. Unless injured, he’ll play every sixth day for St. Louis.
Gray, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas are also scheduled to join the Cardinals’ rotation next season. There’s also the long-standing rumor that the club would like to bring back Kyle Gibson if they end up trading a starter. I don’t see any of those guys being pushed out of the rotation, barring an injury.
So, assuming the Cardinals enter camp with Gray, Fedde, Pallante, Gibson, and Mikolas, guys like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Sem Robberse will have few chances to make the rotation out of camp.
Now, if you switch Fedde’s name for Matz’s, you can have a true conversation. If none of those starters “earned” a rotation spot during Spring Training, the Cardinals may easily insert Matz into the rotation until one is ready. If McGreevy impresses enough to be in the rotation during camp, the team can easily transfer Matz to the bullpen, allowing McGreevy to start but always having Matz as an alternative in case injuries occur or their young players regress.
Having an arm like Matz around makes a lot of sense given the Cardinals’ stated ambitions for 2025. If the young men require more time, Matz can make the starts. If the younger players are ready, it’s no problem to send him to the bullpen. In the case of Mikolas, they will not remove him from the rotation unless he is very poor and the Cardinals are confident they have multiple choices ready to fill in.
So, while the Cardinals consider trading a starting pitcher, prioritize moving Fedde. It makes the most sense in terms of the potential return and the creation of the prospects you mention for young arms. If not, I suppose it would not be the first time.
