I was surprised at how little attention this received in the St. Louis Cardinals media space during the first week of spring training, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak provided an intriguing response to when he “hopes” to see the Cardinals position themselves to spend again on the major league roster.
During one of his appearances on 101 ESPN’s “The Morning After” show during camp, Mozeliak reflected on the infusion of youth the Cardinals hope to experience in the coming years, and he provided a timeline for when he expects to see that talent blossom and the club add free agents to the mix to put the roster in a strong position to compete.
“But when you guys think about the last 30 years, ’96 we drafted third overall, ’98 we drafted fifth overall, really since then we been high-teens, into the 20s and 30s. We’ve had a hard time really arbitraging the draft to the sense of like getting elite talent up front. And when you think about those draft picks, third overall was Braden Looper, fifth was J.D. Drew.
You know, fast-forward to last year, we were finally picking in the top 10, this year we get fifth overall, and so you do have to take advantage of that, you really do, and I think Flo and his group do an amazing job, and I think as you look at ’27, ’28, ’29, there will be some talent flowing here, and then I hope at that point the Cardinals are in a position to start to augment in the free agent world with that group.”
The Cardinals may not be looking to spend big on their roster again until 2027 and beyond
If you follow the breadcrumbs of what the organization has been trying to do this winter, the concept that they may not be available for free agency again until 2027, 2028, or 2029 should not come as a surprise. And I believe we must exercise caution when interpreting Mozeliak’s statement. Having said that, I believe he presented a reasonable foundation for where things may be headed.
I do not believe Mozeliak was attempting to imply that the club will not spend any money on free players until at least 2027, or that such moves will be delayed until 2029. I believe what he was attempting to convey here is that 2025 and 2026 are likely to be building years for this organization (his final year and Chaim Bloom’s first year in charge), and that the years following will be when the fruit of their labor should be visible in St. Louis, and the club will be able to pair some free agent moves and trades with the young core they are developing.
In addition, the Cardinals’ highest-paid players will be released in 2027 and 2028. Nolan Arenado is owed only $15 million in the final year of his contract in 2027 (assuming he is not traded by then), the Cardinals have a $30 million mutual option with Sonny Gray that same year, and Willson Contreras is in the final year of his contract in 2027 with a $17.5 million club option for 2028. By then, young Cardinals on the major league roster will be nearing or entering free agency, and a new youthful core should emerge.
Also, let’s declare the obvious: Mozeliak will not be in command then. It will not be his decision whether and how much they spend. And he would be the first to admit that we cannot foretell how events would unfold. Could the team blossom this year, accelerating their timeline? That is something that I believe is possible. However, things could continue to deteriorate at the Major League level, with 2028 and 2029 being the most likely years before things improve.
Should fans be upset about this? You are free to feel however you wish. Personally, I believe the club’s trajectory will have a significant impact on optics. I don’t mind the Cardinals focusing on youth for the next two years and creating a strong foundation before going out and spending huge money on pieces that should build on that foundation, and, frankly, payroll size doesn’t matter much if the team is headed in the correct direction. There will for definitely come a day that the Cardinals should be trying to recover that salary to better represent the big and passionate audience that supports them, but I am far more concerned with them letting Bloom to get things back on track first organizationally.
I believe this should serve as a harsh warning to Cardinals fans who may already be fantasizing about spending and rebuilding the moment Mozeliak departs. Again, I won’t say it’s unlikely that we’ll hear a different tune next offseason, but the front office and ownership are probably more patient than most of us are with this.
However, I sense a significant contrast between the patience Bloom may want and the patience Mozeliak has preached for years. Only time will tell, but aspects of Bloom’s vision that we have gleaned thus far appear to indicate that he is serious about laying the groundwork for this business and staying on the cutting edge while he is in charge before storming forward once more, and I really like that mindset. Mozeliak, on the other hand, appears to seize opportunities to keep the club relevant and competitive, failing to detect the worsening of factors that would set them back in the long run. That’s how this club became stuck in the “Mozeliak Middle,” as my friend Bernie Miklasz said.
Only time will tell how things progress in the coming years, but it’s fascinating to think about what the Bloom era may bring for the company.
