The Cardinals’ offseason moves were primarily focused on rebuilding their rotation. The signings of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn have all paid off to differing degrees. However, one of the team’s less-heralded moves has proven to be just as essential for the 2024 season. Richie Palacios, an infielder/outfielder, was traded to the Rays for reliever Andrew Kittredge, which was a win-win situation.Palacios has provided Tampa Bay with a.350 OBP and strong defense at several positions. The Cardinals have benefited from one of the National League’s most reliable setup men. And, while Kittredge will be a free agency at the end of the season, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says that the team plans to talk to him about a new contract soon.
Kittredge, 34, is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery in 2022, but he has shown no rust after the grueling rehabilitation. He tossed 11 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay late last season and has been one of baseball’s most frequently utilized relievers this year. His 66 appearances rank him tenth in the league, while his 63 relief innings rank him 33rd out of 173 qualifying relievers.
Kittredge hasn’t just provided volume, though. His 33 holds lead the National League and trail only Houston’s Bryan Abreu (35) in the MLB. He has a 2.86 ERA, with strikeout and walk rates that are slightly higher than normal at 23.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Opponents have kept the ball on the ground 44.5% of the time against him, which is slightly over league average.
It’s reasonable to expect Kittredge to experience some regression, especially as he approaches his 35th season. His rate statistics are all impressive, but none are elite. He’s benefited from a.257 average on balls in play, which is 35 points lower than his career average, but he hasn’t exactly been a soft-contact savant; Statcast rates Kittredge’s hard-hit rate (40.9%, 31st percentile), barrel rate (9.1%, 22nd percentile), and average exit velocity (89.5 mph, 32nd percentile) as below-average.
However, Kittredge has typically gotten by with middle-of-the-pack exit velocity and hard-hit marks, so this year’s barrel rate increase is unusual. This year’s opponents’ pursuit rate, contact rate (both in and out of the zone), and swinging strike rate are all consistent with his previous numbers. Kittredge has lost approximately a mile per hour on both his sinker and slider since his peak performance in 2021, but that season will undoubtedly be remembered as the best of his career. Even if there is some regression ahead, Kittredge appears to be entirely capable of generating a mid-3.00 ERA with strong rate metrics throughout. This version of him remains a valuable and productive reliever.
Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to examine recent precedent, there aren’t many multi-year contracts for relievers starting in their age-35 season or beyond, particularly non-closing relievers. Teams are becoming increasingly wary of committing to players in their mid- to late-30s, and relievers are especially volatile. Chris Martin’s two-year, $17.5MM contract with the Red Sox is the best deal for setup men in this age bracket over the last three years; it began in his age-37 season.Veterans such pitcher Collin McHugh (two years, $10 million with the Braves) and Ryan Brasier (two years, $9 million with the Dodgers) have also landed multi-year contracts. Kittredge has a more consistent track record than Brasier. He throws much harder than McHugh did at the time of his contract with Atlanta. A two-year contract between McHugh and Martin could be beneficial to both parties, speculatively speaking.
If the Cardinals are successful in keeping Kittredge in St. Louis, they will maintain a late-inning bullpen that has been a strength for the 2025 season. Closer Ryan Helsley is under contract until 2025. Fellow setup men JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez (a great Rule 5 find) are under club control until 2026 and 2029, respectively.
