When the Houston Astros acquired Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker deal, it appeared that the Alex Bregman era in Houston was likely over. When they signed Christian Walker shortly after, it seemed very clear that Bregman would wear a different uniform for the first time in the 2025 season.
Despite the fact that these additions were made more than a month ago, Bregman is still available. Because of the lack of strong bidders, the Astros are still looking to re-sign him. It will take some juggling to fit him in, possibly moving Jose Altuve to the outfield, but the Astros would undoubtedly benefit from having their ace third baseman in the lineup.
If the Astros do the impossible and re-sign Bregman given how this offseason has gone, these three players will almost surely depart before the 2026 season.
3) Victor Caratini will find more money elsewhere if the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman
The Astros, surprisingly, have one of the finest catcher duos in the league. Yainer Diaz already appears to be one of the league’s greatest catchers, and Victor Caratini is as undervalued a backup as there is. He was so productive this season that he got action behind the plate, at first base, and as DH.
Caratini hit.269/.336/.408 with eight home runs and 30 RBIs in 87 games, 66 of which he started. In addition to his 113 OPS+, the switch-hitting catcher is an excellent defender behind the plate.
In an ideal world, the Astros would bring him back once his contract expires at the end of the 2025 season, but if Bregman returns, funds will be limited. Caratini is likely to earn more playing time and money than the Astros are willing to offer him.
2) The Astros will try to find a taker for Lance McCullers Jr. if they re-sign Alex Bregman
Lance McCullers Jr. agreed to a five-year, $85 million contract agreement with the Astros before the 2021 season began. This seemed like a good deal at the time. McCullers had established himself as a dependable pitcher in the middle of Houston’s rotation. The first year of McCullers’ contract was a huge success, but he has battled to stay on the field thereafter.
The 31-year-old made only eight starts during the 2022 regular season and three more in the postseason. He has not pitched in a Major League Baseball game since. He has missed the last two complete seasons due to injuries and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day this season.
Assuming he returns and throws to his potential, the Astros will face an interesting decision. On the one hand, McCullers has a strong arm when healthy. On the other hand, he’ll be due $17 million in 2026 on a potentially cash-strapped team, and the Astros don’t need him.
Houston will have Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, and Hayden Wesneski as starting pitchers. Instead of paying McCullers $17 million, Houston may reduce its payroll, allowing them to comfortably keep Bregman in the mix while potentially upgrading in other areas of need.
1) Alex Bregman re-signing likely means Framber Valdez’s days in Houston are numbered
This is the big one. If the Astros re-sign Alex Bregman, are they likely to keep Framber Valdez? One may argue that Valdez, a true ace, is the more vital player to maintain, but Jim Crane has made it quite apparent that he is only prepared to pay up to a certain point. If they pay up for Bregman, they will most likely let Valdez depart.
This would be a significant setback to Houston, since Valdez has emerged as the team’s uncontested ace in recent years. This past season, he had a 2.91 ERA in 28 starts and 176.1 innings. He finished in the top ten of the AL. In each of the last three years, he has received Cy Young votes, and in four of the last five years, he has placed in the top eleven. He’s been one of the finest pitchers in the American League since joining Houston’s rotation as a full-time starter, including some memorable postseason performances.
It would be difficult to let him go, but Houston has let several of its talents leave via free agency or trade, including George Springer, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Justin Verlander twice. They appeared to be poised to do the same with Bregman before his market stopped.
Valdez is due to enter free agency following the 2025 season, and if he has another strong year, he will want to cash in. If Bregman returns, Valdez is unlikely to do so, as Houston has priced him out of the market. Fortunately, the Astros may have enough pitching to survive even without him.
